How Our AI-Powered NBA Prediction System Works

About NBAprediction

NBAprediction was created with a simple goal: use data and machine learning to produce reliable, transparent, and performance-driven NBA predictions. At the heart of the system is a proprietary metric called Impact Performance which measures a player's real influence on winning, far beyond traditional box score stats.

Over the past few seasons, this model has historically delivered 67%+ correctly predicted games and a 10%+ ROI on full seasons.

Game predictions

For each game, we estimate win probabilities based on:

• the Impact Performance of available players,
• team-level Impact Performance and on-court lineups,
• injuries, rotations, and recent trends.

The goal is to provide consistent, actionable probabilities that you can actually use, not hot takes or narratives.

Trophies track record

Our trophy models have been running for more than a decade and show a unique level of accuracy on NBA awards.

MVP award

To predict the MVP, we use Impact Performance weighted by the team’s win ratio. This approach has correctly identified the MVP in 13 of the last 14 seasons (93 percent).

Rookie of the Year award

For Rookie of the Year, we directly compare the Impact Performance of first-year players. Over the last twelve seasons, this has resulted in a 71 percent success rate.

Defensive Player of the Year award

Our Defensive Player of the Year model relies more on traditional and team-based defensive metrics, but still highlights elite defenders and has correctly identified the winner in a solid share of seasons.

Sixth Man of the Year award

The Sixth Man of the Year model focuses on bench players only, using Impact Performance to capture their true on-court value. Over the last thirteen seasons, the overall success rate is 64 percent, including an impressive 88 percent hit rate over the last eight.

Championship contenders

We also use Impact Performance at the team level to identify true championship contenders before the playoffs start. Each season, the model selects a shortlist of 5 to 8 teams with real title-winning potential.

Since the 2011–2012 season:

Here is the historical list of teams selected by the model at the end of each regular season since 2011/2012

Why it works

All these results come from the same foundation:

• Impact Performance to capture on-court impact more accurately,
• machine learning models trained on 15 plus years of data,
• daily updates based on injuries, roles, and team context.

No hype, no narrative, just data, models, and a track record you can verify.