After extensive testing using traditional advanced NBA statistics, we developed our own performance metric: Impact Performance. This metric serves as a modern and more comprehensive version of the Player Efficiency Rating (PER). For each type of prediction, we use a different machine learning model, but the Impact Performance is always the first feature that the algorithm is built upon.
For each game, we consider the Impact Performance of the players expected to be on the court, as well as the team's overall Impact Performance, along with traditional statistics such as TS%, rebound rate, and turnover rate. We then apply a neural model that considers the player's role in the team, and from this, we deduce a probability of victory.
Our goal was to outperform the bookmakers, and we have succeeded. On average, we have achieved a success rate of over 65% over the past three seasons.
However, it is important to note some limitations to consider if you wish to bet on our predictions.
The model is only applicable after about fifteen games per team and only shows its real effectiveness after about thirty games.
The trade deadline periods and the last days of the regular season are also times when the model tends to underperform.
Lastly, our model does not fully account for the back-to-back factor, so we recommend caution when betting on these games.
To predict the winner of the MVP, we also use the Impact Performance, which we weight by the player's team win ratio. This approach has enabled us to accurately predict the MVP in 12 of the last 13 seasons, achieving a success rate of 92%. The only miss was the 2016-2017 season, during which the algorithm predicted James Harden as the MVP, but it was Russell Westbrook who ultimately won the title by averaging a triple-double (a metric that our algorithm does not consider).
| Season | Prediction | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-2012 | LeBron James | LeBron James |
| 2012-2013 | LeBron James | LeBron James |
| 2013-2014 | Kevin Durant | Kevin Durant |
| 2014-2015 | Stephen Curry | Stephen Curry |
| 2015-2016 | Stephen Curry | Stephen Curry |
| 2016-2017 | James Harden | Russell Westbrook |
| 2017-2018 | James Harden | James Harden |
| 2018-2019 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Giannis Antetokounmpo |
| 2019-2020 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Giannis Antetokounmpo |
| 2020-2021 | Nikola Jokic | Nikola Jokic |
| 2021-2022 | Nikola Jokic | Nikola Jokic |
| 2022-2023 | Joel Embiid | Joel Embiid |
| 2023-2024 | Nikola Jokic | Nikola Jokic |
The Rookie of the Year prediction is more straightforward, as we do not apply any weighting. We take the Impact Performance of rookie players and compare them. Over the last twelve seasons, we have achieved a success rate of 77%.
| Season | Prediction | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-2012 | Kyrie Irving | Kyrie Irving |
| 2012-2013 | Damian Lillard | Damian Lillard |
| 2013-2014 | Michael Carter-Williams | Michael Carter-Williams |
| 2014-2015 | Nerlens Noel | Andrew Wiggins |
| 2015-2016 | Karl-Anthony Towns | Karl-Anthony Towns |
| 2016-2017 | Dario Saric | Malcolm Brogdon |
| 2017-2018 | Ben Simmons | Ben Simmons |
| 2018-2019 | Luka Doncic | Luka Doncic |
| 2019-2020 | Ja Morant | Ja Morant |
| 2020-2021 | LaMelo Ball | LaMelo Ball |
| 2021-2022 | Evan Mobley | Scottie Barnes |
| 2022-2023 | Paolo Banchero | Paolo Banchero |
| 2023-2024 | Victor Wembanyama | Victor Wembanyama |
Our Defensive Player of the Year predictions are the least reliable, relying primarily on traditional NBA statistics.
Since 2012, we have only achieved a success rate of 62%, but upon reviewing the list, you will notice that the predictions from our models indicate excellent defenders.
| Season | Prediction | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-2012 | Kevin Garnett | Tyson Chandler |
| 2012-2013 | Tim Duncan | Marc Gasol |
| 2013-2014 | Joakim Noah | Joakim Noah |
| 2014-2015 | Draymond Green | Kawhi Leonard |
| 2015-2016 | Kawhi Leonard | Kawhi Leonard |
| 2016-2017 | Draymond Green | Draymond Green |
| 2017-2018 | Rudy Gobert | Rudy Gobert |
| 2018-2019 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Rudy Gobert |
| 2019-2020 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Giannis Antetokounmpo |
| 2020-2021 | Rudy Gobert | Rudy Gobert |
| 2021-2022 | Robert Williams | Marcus Smart |
| 2022-2023 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | Jaren Jackson Jr. |
| 2023-2024 | Rudy Gobert | Rudy Gobert |
The Sixth Man of the Year prediction also uses Impact Performance, focusing exclusively on bench players. We have achieved a success rate of 62% over the last thirteen seasons, but we have observed a much better prediction rate over the last seven seasons (86%).
| Season | Prediction | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-2012 | James Harden | James Harden |
| 2012-2013 | J.R. Smith | J.R. Smith |
| 2013-2014 | Manu Ginobili | Jamal Crawford |
| 2014-2015 | Josh Smith | Lou Williams |
| 2015-2016 | Hassan Whiteside | Jamal Crawford |
| 2016-2017 | Lou Williams | Eric Gordon |
| 2017-2018 | Lou Williams | Lou Williams |
| 2018-2019 | Montrezl Harrell | Lou Williams |
| 2019-2020 | Montrezl Harrell | Montrezl Harrell |
| 2020-2021 | Jordan Clarkson | Jordan Clarkson |
| 2021-2022 | Tyler Herro | Tyler Herro |
| 2022-2023 | Malcom Brogdon | Malcom Brogdon |
| 2023-2024 | Naz Reid | Naz Reid |
Last but not least, the prediction of the playoffs winner. We use the team's Impact Performance, but also its ability to limit the opponent's IP, the TS% (True Shooting Percentage), winshare, etc.
Benchmarking is more complex since we provide a probability of victory for each team rather than announcing a single winner.
However, let's note a few points:
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